Water AlliesTier 1
at Gaming DNA ALC Store Champs
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 15.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conceal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alliance Gearshield | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Point | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |